Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.205606 0.231174 0.258824 0.290970 0.327347 0.367268 0.414450
2025-11-16 0.160925 0.193563 0.231419 0.278657 0.336155 0.404031 0.490480
2025-11-23 0.128899 0.164592 0.208646 0.267218 0.343352 0.439378 0.570336
2025-11-30 0.110172 0.148653 0.198963 0.269920 0.368011 0.499697 0.691337
2025-12-07 0.090698 0.128631 0.180884 0.258657 0.372421 0.534195 0.784269
2025-12-14 0.077001 0.114366 0.168393 0.252955 0.383386 0.579218 0.899796
2025-12-21 0.066108 0.102466 0.157450 0.247639 0.393827 0.624821 1.024033
2025-12-28 0.059581 0.096162 0.153894 0.252926 0.421275 0.700716 1.209742
2026-01-04 0.052575 0.088059 0.146300 0.250417 0.435400 0.756862 1.371991
2026-01-11 0.047373 0.082181 0.141476 0.251735 0.456081 0.827189 1.571917
2026-01-18 0.043420 0.077881 0.138701 0.256137 0.482797 0.912303 1.814903
2026-01-25 0.038137 0.070488 0.129436 0.247201 0.483018 0.947514 1.965726
2026-02-01 0.033006 0.062838 0.118940 0.234873 0.475696 0.968776 2.096459
2026-02-08 0.029440 0.057710 0.112558 0.229763 0.482273 1.019650 2.302018
2026-02-15 0.026253 0.052911 0.106193 0.223757 0.486065 1.065450 2.506107
2026-02-22 0.024507 0.050804 0.104974 0.228471 0.514066 1.169459 2.869743
2026-03-01 0.021853 0.046456 0.098520 0.220748 0.512659 1.206044 3.075398
2026-03-08 0.019865 0.043283 0.094175 0.217153 0.520368 1.265676 3.353513
2026-03-15 0.018104 0.040390 0.090068 0.213503 0.527351 1.324790 3.643471
2026-03-22 0.017154 0.039207 0.089665 0.218676 0.557271 1.447585 4.138442
2026-03-29 0.015847 0.037031 0.086676 0.216991 0.569170 1.525048 4.519844
2026-04-05 0.014860 0.035495 0.085018 0.218466 0.589812 1.630268 5.010116
2026-04-12 0.014103 0.034428 0.084372 0.222510 0.618284 1.763019 5.619198